Doesn't it take four times the native influence to flip a planet, that is if their influence towards their people is 25, you need as much as 100 to have the slightest chance to have them flip over?
Yes, the red figures puzzle me too, but display bugs are virtually everywhere these days.
In MOO3 there was a similar bug which indicated cash allocation breakpoints to industry and research at the wrong places. I.e. sometimes the color changed, say from yellow to ocher, but production/research efficiency didn't change at that point. Just my thoughts.
~Beast